Forecast 2020 and Beyond

The US/World environment has become more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) as government and business organizations use the term. Most of the information that follows comes from organizations such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, MIT, World Economic Forum, Pew Research, Brookings, and other various governmental and professional sources. Many of these forecasts are expected within the next several years with some stretching out a few decades. The framework of technology, environment, social, economic, and political is used within a variety of studies of the future and business strategy.

Technology

  • Digitization: Transformation of governments, organizations, products, services, crime, war, education, and entertainment, to digital wherever possible. Digital devices will become smaller, lighter, faster, and more interconnected by the billions. Smart phones will provide real-time language translation, serve as health monitors, education platforms, and financial managers; communication bandwidth becomes essentially unlimited; and applications become artificial intelligence enabled.
  • Robotics: Robots will become caregivers and playmates for old and young alike, and will be increasingly used in wars, hazmat sites, farming, and manufacturing.
  • Personal Assistants: Today, personal assistants respond to voice command to control HVAC, lighting, TV, music, household appliances, door locks, window coverings and so on. Tomorrow, they will engage in conversation, offer advice, schedule travel arrangements, serve as personal coaches and psychologists among many other services.
  • Transportation: The transition from gasoline powered vehicles to electric power is underway. In addition, we should see a slow transition to autonomous or self-driving vehicles.
  • Manufacturing: 3D printing will bring about transformational change from printing parts to houses to human organs.
  • Energy: An increasing demand for energy and a gradual replacement of fossil fuels with solar, wind, geothermal, and possibly nuclear, and a requirement to update the electrical grid system.
  • Environment

  • Climate change: Leading to a rapid extinction of species, loss of fresh water and arable land, warming oceans and land, loss of forest land, ocean acidification, raising sea levels, and human and other species migrations. Bugs and disease will move north; expect dozens of villages, towns, and even large cities to retreat from rising seas.
  • Destruction: Increasing deforestation; pollution (such as plastic, greenhouse gases, and other contaminants); and over harvesting of fisheries and sea food.
  • Transportation: Increasing gridlock in cities with continued lost time in commuting. Increasing need and demand for transportation such as bus and light-rail.
  • Water: As glaciers recede, snow fall lessens, and river flow diminishes, the recycling of waste water will become more important as well as desalination.
  • Food: The demand for food and especially protein sources of food will double over the next decade as well as the demand for fresh water as population increases and as people want to eat and live better.
  • Social

  • Demographics: A continued decline in the percentage of Caucasians with an increase in percentages of minority groups including Asians, African-Americans, and Hispanics.
  • War: Physical wars will be increasingly fought with robots as will policing. Information warfare will increase, both in cyberspace as well as physical space and will be both internationally as well as domestically driven.
  • Health: The US now ranks 33/34 of the OECD nations in terms of obesity. Yet, by 2030, about half of the US will be obese.
  • Economic

  • Inequality: Increasing inequality in terms of wealth, income, charitable giving, education, civic involvement, housing, health / lifespan, and opportunity. The top 85 people in the world have as much money as the bottom 3.5 billion people.
  • Debt: US student loan debt exceeds credit card debt and is about $1.6 trillion dollars and growing. Only mortgage debt is higher than student loan debt.
  • Health Care: About 20% of the US GDP or about $3 trillion dollars/year is spent on health care and is increasing each year.
  • Cost of Living: An increasing cost of living, especially in major high-technology cities; many of which are driving middle income people out and increasing a homeless problem. About 2 in 5 US adults could not come up with $400-$500 for an emergency. One in 3 American households are rated at economically fragile.
  • Social Security: US social security funds are expected to diminish by around 2035-2040 without some policy changes.
  • GDP: If California were a separate country, it would be fifth on the economic (GDP) list, just below the US, China, Japan, and Germany. Seven states generate almost 50% of the US GDP: CA, TX, IL, OH, NY, PA, and FL.
  • Political

  • US Senate Seats: By 2040, about 50% of the US population (8 states) will elect 16 US Senators while the other 50% of the US population (42 states) will elect 84 US Senators.
  • Polarization: Increasing social and political polarization and fragmentation as people sort themselves out by race, attitudes toward race, religion, education, and geography.