Last updated:
8:04 AM, 13 May 2008



Jim Miller on Politics

  Email:
jimxc1 at gmail.com



What's he reading? Francis Parkman.

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*new



Pseudo-Random Thoughts


What I Liked About This Part Of The Jenna Wedding Story:  Is that it wasn't a story.
The ceremony began about a half hour or so before sunset.  The couple stood at a cross, made of beige colored Texas limestone, that was erected near the ranch's man-made lake.  The cross and altar, made of the same stone used to construct the Bush's ranch house, will be a landmark at the ranch for years to come.  The Rev. Kirbyjon Caldwell of Windsor Village United Methodist Church in Houston officiated.
This Reverend Kirbyjon Caldwell, in case you missed seeing his picture in the wedding photos.

It was not a story because most Americans are getting beyond race, so that having a president's daughter married by a black preacher requires no comment — even though it has never happened before.

(Incidentally, Reverend Caldwell is backing Barack Obama this year, which obviously didn't bother the Bush family.)
- 8:04 AM, 13 May 2008   [link]


You Just Can't Get Good Help These Days:  Even if you are Barack Obama.
So, for those keeping track at home, that's ten instances of Obama publicly blaming his staff for various screw-ups.
Ten, so far.

(Does this say anything about Obama's judgment in choosing staff?  Good question.   Maybe some reporter will ask him about that.)
- 2:02 PM, 12 May 2008   [link]


Prices For Some Things Are Higher:  And prices for some other things are lower.  And so inflation is not as bad as you may think it is.  That's the message of this David Leonhardt column.  To appreciate it, you may want to start by clicking on the first graphic, which shows that, over the last ten years, the prices of clothes and communication have fallen markedly.

Two selections from the column:
During the 1980s and 1990s, though, did you ever stop and marvel at what a small share of your paycheck you were spending at the supermarket?  I didn't.  I also didn't really notice that gas cost less in the late 1990s than it had in the 1980s.  Yet lately, every time my wife or I pass a new benchmark for filling up our tank — $40, $50 and now $60 — we have a conversation about it.

Price increases are simply more noticeable — more salient, as psychologists would say — than price decreases.  Part of this comes from the notion of loss aversion: human beings dislike a loss more than they like a gain of equivalent size.  If you have to sell your house for less than you bought it for, you're really unhappy.  You hate that ground chuck now costs $2.83 a pound, but you didn't notice that oranges are 31 percent cheaper than they were a year ago.
. . .
Since 2006, of course, home prices have been falling.  But rents have kept rising slowly, which means that, as far as the Consumer Price Index is concerned, housing has somehow gotten more expensive during the real estate crash.

So when the new inflation numbers come out next week, they will indeed be misleading.  They will be artificially high.
Leonhardt could go farther, but doesn't.  (He does, after all, work for the New York Times.)   The two categories which have risen the most in the last ten years are education and medical care.   Those are also the two categories where governments pay the biggest shares of the total costs.  That isn't the only reason that costs for education and medical care have risen so sharply, but I think it explains a large part of those increases.
- 1:15 PM, 12 May 2008   [link]


Bruce Bawer On Obama And His Father:  In this post, I compared the way two other men, Gerald Ford and Shaquille O'Neal, reacted to fathers who had failed them.  As I said then, I found it strange that Obama, unlike the other two men, identified with the failed father, rather than the mother (and maternal grandparents) who actually raised him.

In this article, Bawer comes to a similar conclusion, after reading Obama's book, Dreams of My Father.
Yet on whom does Barack's memoir focus?  On his father - whom Barack, against all evidence (which suggests that Dr. Obama was colossally selfish and narcissistic), seeks to portray as heroic, sympathetic, indeed near-mythic.  Obama père was a polygamist (and a lousy husband to all his wives), but Barack gives no indication that he finds this morally problematic; on the contrary, he seems determined to excuse his father's many failings as consequences of imperialism, colonialism, and/or racism.  One can, of course, well understand why a small boy - or even a young man - might idealize out of all proportion the father he never met.  But Obama shows few signs in this book of recognizing that he's doing this.   Meanwhile, perversely, he treats his mother and grandparents, who by his own account raised him with extraordinary devotion, all but dismissively.  At one point he even suggests that Gramps and Toot were really racists - and that all white people, in fact, are racists, and that black people have been so deformed by this racism that black individuals can hardly be held responsible for their own moral lapses.
And is still treating his maternal grandmother dismissively.  I was struck by the fact that, after attacking her in a national speech, he chose to spend his Easter vacation in the Virgin Islands, rather than Hawaii, where she lives.  (According to news accounts, she is not well, so he may not have many chances to see her again.)

This is, as I said, strange, almost bizarre.  But I have not seen a single attempt to explain it from a "mainstream journalist.
- 9:02 AM, 12 May 2008   [link]


An Apostate President?  By Muslim doctrine, Barack Obama is an apostate.
As the son of the Muslim father, Senator Obama was born a Muslim under Muslim law as it is universally understood.  It makes no difference that, as Senator Obama has written, his father said he renounced his religion.  Likewise, under Muslim law based on the Koran his mother's Christian background is irrelevant.

Of course, as most Americans understand it, Senator Obama is not a Muslim.  He chose to become a Christian, and indeed has written convincingly to explain how he arrived at his choice and how important his Christian faith is to him.

His conversion, however, was a crime in Muslim eyes; it is "irtidad" or "ridda," usually translated from the Arabic as "apostasy," but with connotations of rebellion and treason.  Indeed, it is the worst of all crimes that a Muslim can commit, worse than murder (which the victim's family may choose to forgive).
And an apostate president would not be universally welcomed in Muslim lands, as Edward Luttwak goes on to explain.

(I'm often critical of the New York Times.  But I will give them credit for this:  Their op-ed page often includes pieces, such as this one, that present facts and opinions not found in the rest of the paper.

Although Barack Obama is formally a Christian, I am not sure that he actually believes the central tenets of Christianity.  Ordinarily, I would not mention such matters, but the reasons he gives for joining Trinity United are so political that it is impossible not to be suspicious.

Here's my earlier post on Obama's Muslim childhood.)
- 5:45 AM, 12 May 2008   [link]


Boys And Girls Are Different:  As even the New York Times is forced to admit, occasionally.  In particular, girls are more likely to be injured in sports.
Girls and boys diverge in their physical abilities as they enter puberty and move through adolescence.   Higher levels of testosterone allow boys to add muscle and, even without much effort on their part, get stronger.  In turn, they become less flexible.  Girls, as their estrogen levels increase, tend to add fat rather than muscle.  They must train rigorously to get significantly stronger.  The influence of estrogen makes girls' ligaments lax, and they outperform boys in tests of overall body flexibility — a performance advantage in many sports, but also an injury risk when not accompanied by sufficient muscle to keep joints in stable, safe positions.  Girls tend to run differently than boys — in a less-flexed, more-upright posture — which may put them at greater risk when changing directions and landing from jumps.  Because of their wider hips, they are more likely to be knock-kneed — yet another suspected risk factor.
For some injuries, far more likely, notably injuries to the anterior cruciate ligament.
If girls and young women ruptured their A.C.L.s at just twice the rate of boys and young men, it would be notable.  Three times the rate would be astounding.  But some researchers believe that in sports that both sexes play, and with similar rules — soccer, basketball, volleyball — female athletes rupture their A.C.L.s at rates as high as five times that of males.
Although the ligament can usually be repaired, recovery is a long, and sometimes painful, process.

After seeing the injuries on a university women's basketball team (a very well-known team) and reading about the injuries suffered by women's cross country teams (more frequent though not as severe as the injuries on men's football teams), I came to the politically incorrect conclusion that boys and girls should not play the same sports, with the same rules.

The print edition of the article gives two-thirds of a page to this question:  Everyone wants girls to have as many opportunites in sports as boys.  But can we live with the greater rate of injuries they suffer?  My answer to that question is that we should want girls to have as many — but not the same — opportunities in sports as boys have.  Because boys and girls are different, as any knee surgeon can tell you.
- 2:36 PM, 11 May 2008   [link]


Who Do You Believe?  Obama's adviser, or that lying video?  I'm going with the video, myself.  Obama did promise to meet with Iran's [insert nasty adjective of your choice here] President Ahmadinejad, wthout preconditions.
- 1:36 PM, 11 May 2008   [link]


Happy Mother's Day!  To all the mothers out there.  This year, I don't have my usual mother duck to show you, nor even last year's flowers.

But I do have tributes to mothers from four very different bloggers: "Babalu", who reminds us of the facts of life, Dan Collins, who takes a light approach, Jeralyn Merritt, who touched my heart by describing how she is taking care of her aging mother, and "neo-neocon", who gives us three generations, and a little family history.

Cross posted at Sound Politics.
- 12:45 PM, 11 May 2008   [link]


When A Disaster Strikes, some try to help.  Others try to take credit for helping.
Myanmar's military regime distributed international aid Saturday but plastered the boxes with the names of top generals in an apparent effort to turn the relief effort for last week's devastating cyclone into a propaganda exercise.

The United Nations sent in three more planes and several trucks loaded with aid, though the junta took over its first two shipments.  The government agreed to let a U.S. cargo plane bring in supplies Monday, but foreign disaster experts still were being barred entry.
Classy bunch, those generals.

(If the same storm had hit the United States, it would have been called a "hurricane", not a cyclone.   In the northwest Pacific, it would have been called a "typhoon".  A storm can change from a "hurricane" to a "typhoon", or vice versa, by crossing the International Date Line.  There's a full discussion of the naming rules for these giant storms in this article on tropical cyclones.)
- 11:15 AM, 10 May 2008   [link]


Expansionist Plans?  Or just confusion?  Barack Obama said, yesterday, that he had been in 57 states.
"It is wonderful to be back in Oregon," Obama said. "Over the last 15 months, we've traveled to every corner of the United States.  I've now been in 57 states?  I think one left to go.  Alaska and Hawaii, I was not allowed to go to even though I really wanted to visit, but my staff would not justify it."
As I read that, he is saying that he has campaigned in 57 states and has 3 to go before he has campaigned in all of them.

It's an understandable mistake, especially given the constant travel of a modern campaign.  But it also true that this slip would be treated differently if John McCain or George W. Bush had said it.

(You can see video of the slip here.  Like Ann Althouse, I '"love the way he pauses and really thinks before adding the "-seven."'
- 5:39 AM, 10 May 2008   [link]


Measuring The Snow At Mt. Rainier:  Here's where they do it.

Mt. Rainier weather station, May 2008

They use the orange pole on the left to measure snow depth.  When I took the picture, there was almost 19 feet of snow there.  I am not sure how they measure the daily snow fall, but I wouldn't be surprised if they use that small dark container to the right of the weather station.  (The area was roped off, so I didn't take a close look.)

I took the picture last Sunday.  Since then, some of the snow has melted, but, according to the park's recorded message, there is still 210 inches on the ground.  (They have received 896 inches since last July.)
- 4:21 PM, 9 May 2008   [link]


Is Obama The Democratic Nominee?  Not quite yet, says Jay Cost.
Elite opinion on the Democratic race has congealed around the idea that it is over.   Clinton has no chance whatsoever to win the nomination now.  There is a minority of analysts out there - maybe 5%, maybe even less - who see her path to the nomination as much narrower than it was four days ago, but who still see a path.

I'm with the minority on this one.  I think she is nearly finished, but not quite yet.
I'm with that minority, too.  As are some of the bettors at InTrade, where they currently give Barack Obama about a 90 percent chance to win the nomination.  That means, of course, that the same bettors are giving Clinton about a 10 percent chance to win the nomination.

In general, Cost's analysis seems correct to me, but incomplete.  Incomplete because the nomination fight isn't over until it's over.  And, until it's over, something could happen.  For instance, Jeremiah Wright, who seems to enjoy the spotlight, might pop up again.  And it is not hard to think of even more dire possibilities.
- 12:37 PM, 9 May 2008   [link]


Worth A Look:  Maybe several looks.  Karl Rove's maps showing McCain versus Clinton, and McCain versus Obama.  You'll note that McCain is — currently — doing better against the junior senator from Illinois than against the junior senator from New York, and that the patterns of support for the two Democratic candidates are quite different.

(Some states will almost certainly shift as voters in them learn more.  For instance, I think that, assuming that Obama is the nominee, McCain will carry both North Dakota and Nebraska easily.)
- 8:52 AM, 9 May 2008   [link]


Letter Of The Day:  From, coincidentally, Mercer Island.   As I am sure you know, a destructive cyclone has hit the nation long known as Burma.  According to news reports, as many as a hundred thousand may have been killed.  Many might have been saved if the leftwing military dictatorship had been willing to warn the people.  Even now, the military rulers are blocking help from the outside.

Does any of this bother our letter writer?  No.  But this does:

Has anyone noticed? George Bush and his underlings, along with everyone at "fair and balanced" FOX News, keep referring to Myanmar as "Burma" ["Aid slowly trickles into ravaged Myanmar," News, May 7].

What's the point?

Maybe Myanmar should refer to America as "the Colonies" ... ?

Man, it really is time for a change.

(Out of courtesy, I have omitted the letter writer's name, though you can find it easily enough at the link.)

I hesitate to point this out, but the preference for Burma over Myanmar is shared by the leftist San Francisco Chronicle and the leftist Washington Post.  More important, it is shared by the democratic opposition in Burma.  Their broadest organization calls itself the "National Council of the Union of Burma".  So, President Bush is on the side of the people of Burma — and the letter writer is on the side of the cruel military dictatorship.

Cross posted at Sound Politics.
- 2:55 PM, 8 May 2008   [link]


Kansas, Or A Seattle Suburb?  When Bill Clinton was presenting himself to the American public in 1992, he was described as "The Man from Hope", Hope, Arkansas, that is.  His supporters even made a movie with that title.  The Clinton campaign called him the Man from Hope for two reasons, to take advantage of the town's name, and to imply that Clinton had the wholesome values many of us associate with small towns.

There is just one thing wrong with calling Clinton the Man from Hope; it isn't completely true.   Clinton was born in Hope in 1946 and lived there (in the care of grandparents) until 1950, but he grew up in Hot Springs, Arkansas, a very different place.  Hot Springs was famous, or, if you prefer, infamous, for its vices, famous enough to attract visitors like Al Capone and Bugs Moran.  Hardly anyone would think those visitors had small town values.

But Clinton got away with it during 1992, though reporters familiar with Arkansas (and Clinton's personal history) must have know that he was being deceptive.

The Obama campaign is pulling a similar trick with his mother.

Barack's mother, Ann Dunham, grew up in small-town Kansas.  Her father worked on oil rigs during the Depression, and then signed up for World War II after Pearl Harbor, where he marched across Europe in Patton's army.  Her mother went to work on a bomber assembly line, and after the war, they studied on the G.I. Bill, bought a house through the Federal Housing Program, and moved west to Hawaii.

That leaves out a lot.  Stanley Ann Dunham was born in Kansas in 1942, but her family moved to the Seattle area in 1955, and in 1956 settled in a Seattle suburb, Mercer Island, where they moved sharply to the left.  There's a good description of their time in Mercer Island in this long Chicago Tribune article.   Some excerpts:

Obama's mother spent 8th grade through high school here.  Four of those five years were spent on Mercer Island, a 5-mile-long, South America-shaped stretch of Douglas firs and cedars, just across from Seattle in Lake Washington.
. . .
At Mercer High School, two teachers -- Val Foubert and Jim Wichterman -- generated regular parental thunderstorms by teaching their students to challenge societal norms and question all manner of authority.  Foubert, who died recently, taught English.  His texts were cutting edge: "Atlas Shrugged," "The Organization Man," "The Hidden Persuaders," "1984" and the acerbic writings of H.L. Mencken.
. . .
"If you were concerned about something going wrong in the world, Stanley would know about it first," said [fellow student] Chip Wall, who described her as "a fellow traveler. . . . We were liberals before we knew what liberals were."

(Or as I would say, leftists.)

Sociologically, Mercer Island was already a long way from small town Kansas, especially for those who fell under the influence of teachers like Foubert and Wichterman.  But Obama would prefer that we not know about that part of his mother's life, even though it was the formative part.

It is not hard to see why Obama wants to conceal this part of his mother's life, just as it is not hard to see why Clinton wanted to call himself the Man from Hope.  In each case, the man wants to claim some connection to small town values, the one directly and the other through his mother.   Clinton got away with it in 1992, and Obama may do the same this year.

The deliberate deception tells us something about both men.  In particular, it tells us that both men are bold liars, willing to deceive even when they know that their deceptions can be detected by anyone who takes a little time to check.  (And both men rely on the forbearance of "mainstream" journalists, some of whom must know the truth.)

Cross posted at Sound Politics.

(The Dunhams didn't go directly from Kansas to Seattle.  After World War II, her family moved to Texas, and from there to Seattle.  So, with the same lack of accuracy, one could say that Barack's mother grew up in Texas.  But I doubt that his campaign will ever make that claim.

Incidentally, I fell for this trick myself, believing for some time that the Dunhams had lived in Kansas most of their lives and then moved to Hawaii to retire.

This is the fourth post in my "Strange Obama" series.  You can find the earlier posts here, here, and here.)
- 1:41 PM, 8 May 2008
Two corrections:  Ann Dunham, Obama's mother, was born in 1942, not 1940, as I originally wrote.  And her family also lived in California after leaving Kansas, and before moving to the Seattle area.
- 6:56 PM, 8 May   [link]


Barbara Walters, Home Wrecker:  Star Jones and Tim Graham point out the obvious.
From Us Magazine through TV Newser: Star Jones lets her old "View" boss Barbara Walters have it on how she's using her tale of adultery with black Republican Sen. Edward Brooke in the Seventies to sell books: "It is a sad day when an icon like Barbara Walters in the sunset of her life is reduced to publicly branding herself as an adulterer, humiliating an innocent family with accounts of her illicit affair and speaking negatively against me all for the sake of selling a book.  It speaks to her true character."

Aside from the never-ending controversy over how Star Jones dramatically lost weight, it's amazing to see how everyone from Oprah to Howard Kurtz in the Washington Post today see Barbara's tale of being a mistress as a fascinating life story, and not a tale of sleazy immorality.
The obvious that almost all journalists missed.  Walters helped destroy a man's marriage and his career.  She feels a little sorry about the second, but not at all about the first.

That so many journalists, including Howard Kurtz, missed the obvious tells us something about their own morals, and about their willingness to tolerate (and, often, conceal) the moral failings of politicians they like — and something about their hypocrisy when they pretend to care about the moral failings of politicians they dislike.

(Gretchen Wilson wrote a song for Ms. Walters.  Maybe some interviewer should play that song for Walters as she goes around on her book tour.)
- 7:10 AM, 8 May 2008   [link]


Nasty Air Pollution In Hawaii:  From the Kilauea volcano.
Big Island crops are shriveling as sulfur dioxide from Kilauea wafts over them and envelops them in "vog," or volcanic smog.  People are wheezing, and schoolchildren are being kept indoors during recess.   High gas levels led Hawaii Volcanoes National Park to close several days last month, forcing the evacuation of thousands of visitors.

Residents of this volcanic island are used to toxic gas.  But this haze is so bad that farmers are thinking about growing different crops, and many people are worrying about their health.
The vog has gotten much worse since March, when a new vent opened in the volcano.

Of course this vog would be completely illegal if it were coming from a US factory.  (Maybe even if it were coming from a Chinese factory.)
- 6:25 AM, 8 May 2008   [link]


Archives

June 2002
July 2002
August 2002
September 2002
October 2002, Part 1 and Part 2
November 2002, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3
December 2002, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3

January 2003, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3
February 2003, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3
March 2003, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3
April 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
May 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
June 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
July 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
August 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
September 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
October 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
November 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
December 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4

January 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
February 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
March 2004, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
April 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
May 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
June 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
July 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
August 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
September 2004, Part 1, Part 2. Part 3, and Part 4
October 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
November 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
December 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4

January 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
February 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
March 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
April 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
May 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
June 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
July 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
August 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
September 2005, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
October 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
November 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
December 2005, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4

January 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
February 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
March 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
April 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
May 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
June 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
July 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
August 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
September 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
October 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
November 2006, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
December 2006, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4

January 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
February 2007, Part 1 and Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
March 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
April 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
May 2007, Part 1 Part 2, and Part 3, and Part 4
June 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
July 2007, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
August 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
September 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
October 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
November 2007, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
December 2007, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4

January 2008, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
February 2008, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
March 2008, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4
April 2008, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
May 2008, Part 1 and Part 2






Coming Soon
  • Congratulations to the Sierra Club
  • JFK and Wiretaps
  • Armey's Army
  • Green Republicans


Coming Eventually
  • The Rise and Fall and Rise of Black Voting
  • Abortion, Cleft Palates, and Europe
  • Kweisi Mfume's Children
  • Public Opinion During Other US Wars
  • Dual Loyalties
  • The Power Index
  • Baby Dancing
  • Jocks, but no Nerds
  • The Four Caliphs



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